Submitted by Brodsky on Tue, 06/17/2008 - 09:01
What links together the conflicts in the Middle East? Isn't it, afterall, possible to feel especially fascinated by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, feel obligated to resolve it, believe that it should not be difficult to solve given the public parameters, and not believe it is linked to all other conflicts in the Middle East?
"The concept of linkage requires another belief: that the Middle East is a system, like Europe, and that its conflicts are related to one another," writes Martin Kramer.
The Middle East is far from being the European Union. Their systems are not similar.
Kramer describes nine clusters of conflicts in his article, "The Myth of Linkage."
Egypt is in conflict with Syria for their support for Shi'a Hizballah in Lebanon; with Iran and Iraq's Shi'a on religious grounds; with Saudi Arabia over their support for extremist Sunni Islamic movements such as Islamic Jihad and the Muslim Brotherhood who pose a particular challenge to Egypt's one-party regime.
Saudi Arabia is in conflict with Hizballah for destroying Lebanon; with Syria for assassinating Rafiq al-Hariri; with Iraq's Shi'a who they fear may spark an uprising among the minority Shi'a in the oil-rich eastern region of Saudi Arabia; with Iran over regional supremacy.
Exactly how would a solution to conflict #9 help solve the Kuridish problem; the Sunni-Shi'a split; the Sudanese genocide; the civil war in Iraq; Iran's regional and nuclear ambitions; international terrorism, Lebanon's fragile domestic situation?
The truth is that it wouldn't.
How is conflict #9 linked to conflicts 1 through 8?
The truth is that it is not.
Jimmy Carter explained in an interview:
The fact that groups can band together to blame another is not proof that the allegations are true. The fact that so many people in Europe wanted to kick out or kill Jews during the Holocaust, does not make the Jews guilty of the accusations.
In fact, because there are conflicts 1 through 8 above, there is a need for a common bond, namely conflict #9. Their hatred for Israel and varying degrees of dislike for the U.S. is the one thing that these states share. It is only in this manner that the conflicts are linked.
READ PART I
What links together the conflicts in the Middle East? Isn't it, afterall, possible to feel especially fascinated by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, feel obligated to resolve it, believe that it should not be difficult to solve given the public parameters, and not believe it is linked to all other conflicts in the Middle East?"The concept of linkage requires another belief: that the Middle East is a system, like Europe, and that its conflicts are related to one another," writes Martin Kramer.
The Middle East is far from being the European Union. Their systems are not similar.
Kramer describes nine clusters of conflicts in his article, "The Myth of Linkage."
- The Arab-Persian conflict (with its origins in earlier Ottoman-Persian conflict). This manifested itself in our time most destructively in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, and it continues to inflame post-Saddam Iraq and other parts of the Arab/Persian Gulf (even the name of which is the subject of dispute). This is probably one of the oldest rivalries in the history of the world. It has been exacerbated by the bid of Iran, under the Shah and now under the Islamic regime, to restore lost imperial greatness and achieve hegemonic dominance over the Gulf and beyond.
- The Shiite-Sunni conflict, which goes back in various forms for fourteen centuries, and which the struggle for Iraq has greatly inflamed, both within that country and beyond. There is some overlap here with Arab-Persian conflict, but the Shiite-Sunni conflict also divides Arabs against each other, in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Gulf countries. The ruthless violence between the sects in Iraq suggested the savage potential of this sectarianism, which has some potential to spread to other places in the Middle East where Shiites and Sunnis contest power and privilege.
- The Kurdish awakening, which involves a large national group experiencing a political revival in the territory of several existing states. Over the past two decades, violent conflict generated by Kurdish aspirations has torn at the fabric of Turkey and Iraq. Kurdish groups have used terrorism, and states have used scorched-earth repression and chemical weapons against Kurds. Now that Iraqi Kurds have established a de facto state in northern Iraq, there is every prospect that the Kurdish awakening will generate more conflict, and that it will spill over borders, possibly involving Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

- The inter-Arab conflict among Arab states over primacy, influence, and borders—the result of disputes created by the post-Ottoman partition of the Arab lands by Britain and France. In some places, these disputes are exacerbated by the inequities in nature's apportioning of oil resources. The most destructive example of such a conflict in our times was Iraq's invasion and occupation of Kuwait—the attempted erasure of one Arab state by another. Other examples include Nasser's invasion of Yemen and Syria's occupation of Lebanon.
- Conflicts over the political aspirations of compact Christian groups with strong historic ties to the West. Foreign Christian minorities were turned out of the region decades ago, but the Maronites of Lebanon and the Greeks of Cyprus have held their ground. In the 1970s, wars were launched to deprive them of their political standing, leading in Cyprus to de facto partition between Greek and Turkish areas, and in Lebanon to a quasi-cantonization. These conflicts have defied all attempts at final resolution.
- Conflicts that arise from the quest of Arab states to preserve or restore parts of their pre-colonial African empires. The most significant conflicts in this category are the long-running war in Sudan, which has descended into genocide in Darfur, and the festering contest over Western Sahara.
- The nationalist-Islamist conflicts within states, which are the result of failed modernization and the disappointed expectations of independence. The costliest of these conflicts in our time were the Iranian revolution in the 1970s (Islamists prevailed), the Islamist uprising in Syria in the 1980s (nationalists won), and the civil war that ravaged Algeria for much of the 1990s (nationalists triumphed). Smaller-scale conflict has occurred in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and is now afflicting the Palestinian territories.
- The Persian Gulf oil conflicts that fuel numerous conflicts, generated by the addiction of the industrialized West to the vast oil resources of the region, and the need of the United States to maintain its hegemony over the world's single largest reservoir of energy. The United States essentially keeps the Gulf as an American lake, using aggressive diplomacy, arms sales to clients, and its own massive force to keep oil flowing at reasonable prices. This has put the United States in direct conflict with regional opponents—Islamic Iran, Saddam's Iraq, and a non-state actor, Al Qaeda—who have seen its dominance as disguised imperialism. In particular, U.S.-Iranian conflict for regional hegemony has escalated over the last thirty years, and is now being exacerbated by Iran's nuclear ambitions and pursuit of regional power status.
- There is conflict involving Israel, on three planes: Arab-Israeli (that is, Israel versus Arab states), Palestinian-Israeli, and Iranian-Israeli. The Arab-Israeli conflict produced a series of four inter-state wars in each of the four decades beginning in 1948. But since Egypt's peace with Israel, three decades ago, there have been no general Arab-Israeli wars, and Israel has negotiated formal or de facto agreements or understandings with neighboring states. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict periodically erupts and subsides (most dramatically in two intifadas), and continues to defy resolution, but hasn't led to a regional conflagration. The brewing Iranian-Israeli conflict isn't about the Palestinians; it is an extension of the contest between the U.S. and Iran for regional dominance. So far, this conflict has manifested itself in short but sharp contests between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon.
Egypt is in conflict with Syria for their support for Shi'a Hizballah in Lebanon; with Iran and Iraq's Shi'a on religious grounds; with Saudi Arabia over their support for extremist Sunni Islamic movements such as Islamic Jihad and the Muslim Brotherhood who pose a particular challenge to Egypt's one-party regime.
Saudi Arabia is in conflict with Hizballah for destroying Lebanon; with Syria for assassinating Rafiq al-Hariri; with Iraq's Shi'a who they fear may spark an uprising among the minority Shi'a in the oil-rich eastern region of Saudi Arabia; with Iran over regional supremacy.
Exactly how would a solution to conflict #9 help solve the Kuridish problem; the Sunni-Shi'a split; the Sudanese genocide; the civil war in Iraq; Iran's regional and nuclear ambitions; international terrorism, Lebanon's fragile domestic situation?
The truth is that it wouldn't.
How is conflict #9 linked to conflicts 1 through 8?
The truth is that it is not.
Jimmy Carter explained in an interview:
There is no doubt: The heart and mind of every Muslim is affected by whether or not the Israel-Palestine issue is dealt with fairly. Even among the populations of our former close friends in the region, Egypt and Jordan, less than 5 percent look favorably on the United States today. That's not because we invaded Iraq; they hated Saddam. It is because we don't do anything about the Palestinian plight.What is in the heart and mind of every Muslim is a question worth asking. How Jimmy Carter knows this answer is even more intriguing because he clearly has no idea beyond the sound-bites he uses to push his agenda.
The fact that groups can band together to blame another is not proof that the allegations are true. The fact that so many people in Europe wanted to kick out or kill Jews during the Holocaust, does not make the Jews guilty of the accusations.
In fact, because there are conflicts 1 through 8 above, there is a need for a common bond, namely conflict #9. Their hatred for Israel and varying degrees of dislike for the U.S. is the one thing that these states share. It is only in this manner that the conflicts are linked.
READ PART I

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