Scores dead after a week of bloody confrontation in Beirut

By: Matthew RJ Brodsky

Submitted by Brodsky on Sun, 05/18/2008 - 15:35
“We cannot go back to how we lived with them before,” Mr. Obaid, a Sunni Muslim told the New York Times in Lebanon in reference to tcartoon caricture of hasan nasrallahhe Shi'a Hizballah.  “The blood is boiling here. Every boy here, his blood is boiling. They push us, they push us, they push us.”

The Lebanese civil war that ended in the 1990s was more a product of tensions along the Muslim-Christian divide.  Today, the tension is turning out to be Sunni versus Shi'a.  
 
Make no mistake: Hizballah wants to control Lebanon on behalf of their Iranian and Syrian hosts.  Unlike Hamas, who probably would have been happier if the Palestinian elections saw them make gains rather than win, Hizballah wants total victory - through the ballot or through arms.
 
 
By refusing to disarm they demonstrated again that they are the law, easily kicking the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).  A descent toward civil war will cause the international community and the Arab states to call for a mediator or peacekeeper.
 
Re-enter Syria.  This is Bashar al-Asad's gamble. 
 
He hopes to further destabilize the unstable political situation in Lebanon - where for 18 months, the sides cannot agree on a president.  In return for sowing war and disaster, Asad hopes Syria will be invited back in to Lebanon to provide the stability that only their occupation can ensure.
 
It's an interesting equation that has worked wonders for Syria's awkward president since inheriting his father's throne in 2000:
  1. Create tension
  2. Fan the flames of Arabism and Islamism
  3. Actively work to prevent Lebanon's independence
  4. Assassinate Lebanese political leaders and journalists who disagree with Syria's strategy
  5. Support Hizballah and provide them with training and weapons
  6. Demand that the Lebanese be thankful for Syria undermining the country
  7. Posit the idea that if Syria returned, the peace - that Syria destroyed to begin with - would return
For most Westerners, such an obvious, repetitive, bold-face strategy of undermining an independent state would seem ridiculous.  Ah, but not here.
 
Welcome to the Middle East - where you can punch someone in the mouth and steal their wallet while offering them your protection.
 

end-game

Submitted by Brodsky on Sun, 05/18/2008 - 17:39.
Bashar al-Asad rules an economically depressed Syria. Lebanon provides millions of jobs for Syrians and the Syrian Elite. One of his goals (just like his father's) was to increase his regional influence. Economic reform in Syria would spell the downfall of the regime and the careful balancing act of sectarian interests. Former VP Khaddam - who left the country a few years ago and is now anti-Asad - was in charge of Lebanese affairs before Bashar came to power. He admits that reform is only possible once the regime falls. The Asad regime has one primary goal: To maintain power by maintaining the status quo. It is an end onto itself.
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end game?

Submitted by A on Sun, 05/18/2008 - 17:29.
seems like a short-sighted strategy for assad. if that's all he can come up with he must be running low on strategies. what's the up side of his controling lebanon anyway? its not like they have any natural resources or anything?
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